This quote famously attributed to Mark Twain resonates when looking at stock market cycles. Historically, the US stock market has exhibited similar patterns and characteristics as it transitioned from an uptrend (bull market) to a downtrend (bear market). What do these patterns look like and where does the data point to now? Most major bear Read More
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What Assets Perform Best in High Inflation Environments?
Much has been written about inflation in recent months. While some argue inflation is here to stay, others have taken the position that we will resume the long-term trend of deflation due to technological innovation and overindebted economies once supply chain dislocations ease. Inflation tends to be an economic as well as psychological trend and Read More
What is the Value of Anything?
I was reminded of this question earlier in the week when Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase, announced that the value of bitcoin is going to zero. Investors take notice when the CEO of the largest bank in the United States makes a prediction concerning the future value of an asset. Bitcoin / Read More
Harnessing Climate Change with a Trend Following Hedge
With the recent bout of devastating weather events including drought, frost, fires, flooding and heat, we are reminded of the potential for more frequent and extreme climate variability in the years ahead. Market dislocations due to weather have the potential to occur more frequently and more severely, impacting food prices around the globe. While much attention Read More
View from Crystal Bay: Taking on Inflation, Then and Now
The scepter of inflation is haunting the land. It remains to be seen whether it’s only Casper the Ghost, good for scaring small children, or whether we’re dealing with a full blown Poltergeist. We will have our answer soon enough. But it’s not too early to ask ourselves what should we do if relevant authorities Read More