The questions on the minds of most investors is: When will the stock market bounce? and Is this the beginning of a more severe downturn? Several blogs ago, I covered the signs and typical archetype of a stock market top. While we are seeing similar characteristics today, the major challenge for active investors is separating a normal Read More
Asset Clusters
Stock & bond investors miss out on 70% of the diversification available. One of the attractions of trading futures is that the universe of instruments is large and wide. Do you want to trade gold? There is an instrument for that. Oil? Sure. S&P 500? Korean government bonds? The Swiss franc? Oats? Yes, yes, yes, Read More
A US Recession is Imminent
Recessions are rare events. Since 1990, the US economy spent about 10% of the time in a recession and 90% of the time in a recovery or an expansion. Most of the time, investors don’t have to worry about it. About once every 10 years, however, we better watch out. Recessions trigger bad bear markets, Read More
The Next 10 Years in the US Stock Market
The last 15 years saw the third longest bull market in US history. We have gone 5,091 days (almost 14 years) since the last 30% correction. The two bull markets that lasted longer ended in May 1970 (ushering in 12 years of pain) and September 2001 (followed by a lost decade for stocks). The longer Read More
Turmoil Below the Surface
Looking from a distance, the US stock market looks placid. The S&P 500 index reached all time highs and volatility is low. After the sell-offs in 2020 (due to Covid) and 2022 (due to a rise in interest rates), equities are behaving well. The recent quiet is obvious from a chart of daily returns on Read More