Category: Uncategorized

The bear market in stocks in 2022 began like most others in history: with a deterioration in the number of companies participating in the market uptrend. Initially weakness is seen in the smaller more speculative stocks and over time it migrates into the large capitalization companies. In the end, no stock is spared as selling Read More

Psychology is the great underappreciated variable in investing and trading that magnifies the underlying fundamentals and consequently exacerbates price trends. Perhaps the following John Templeton quote states it best: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to Read More

Interest rates are forefront on investors minds as the pace of rate increases over the last several months is something not seen in decades. Interest rates determine the cost of capital in an economy and subsequently have an outsized impact on the trajectory of economic growth. What does the recent sharp increase in rates mean Read More

To recap my previous post, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced a 0.25% rate hike last week. The Fed is monitoring the economy and has telegraphed its intention to hike rates as needed to bring down inflation in response to the sharp price increases consumers are seeing in their daily lives.  Volatility has picked up in Read More

This quote famously attributed to Mark Twain resonates when looking at stock market cycles. Historically, the US stock market has exhibited similar patterns and characteristics as it transitioned from an uptrend (bull market) to a downtrend (bear market). What do these patterns look like and where does the data point to now? Most major bear Read More