Stock markets are off to a strong start in 2023 following a dismal performance in 2022. Notwithstanding sharply higher interest rates and fears of a forthcoming recession, the bulls, at least for now, are in control. There are several arguments to be made for being bullish or bearish in this environment. The bullish argument relies Read More
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Time to Pivot?
Will the Fed pivot or more importantly does it matter? We’ll see… There lived an old farmer who had worked in his fields for many, many years. One day, his horse bolted away. His neighbors dropped in to commiserate with him. “What awful luck,” they tut-tutted sympathetically, to which the farmer only replied, “We’ll see.” Read More
Divergent Strategies on the Rise?
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points this week and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated its intention to get inflation back under control no matter the consequences to short-term economic growth or asset prices. After all, inflation affects 100% of the population while capital market assets affect a much smaller cohort globally. Read More
A Bear Market Rally or a New Bull Market In Stocks?
Stock markets rallied sharply in July and have continued to climb in August in response to the cooling of record levels of inflation. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to ease back the frequency and magnitude of interest rate hikes in response, an apparent bullish case for stocks. According to Wednesday’s edition of The Wall Street Read More
From the Trading Desk: A Recession in All but a Name
This month’s CPI reading of 9.1% marked a 40-year high, despite the Fed’s efforts to tame inflation. GDP numbers for Q2 were published and the US economy shrank for a second consecutive quarter. GDP US Chained 2012 Dollars QoQ SAAR (GDP CQOQ Index) 12-months Despite the general rule to identify a recession, the fall of Read More