With the stock market at all-time highs, concentration has reached extreme levels. The top ten companies make up 40% of the S&P 500, with Nvidia and Microsoft accounting for 15% alone. Technology now represents 34% of the index, higher than at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Outside of the top ten, the other 490 Read More
Alternatives That Are Not Alternatives
The fifteen year bull market that started in 2009 drove investor allocations to US equities to all time highs. We are now at levels exceeding the late 1990s dotcom bubble or the 1960s go-go market. Investor allocation to stocks as a fraction of all assets since the early 1950’s Stock market valuations are stretched: current Read More
Regime Shift
Since 2021, our message about interest rates has been clear: rates move in long term cycles, elevated rates are here to stay, and this environment requires a completely different playbook than the one needed over the last 40 years of falling rates. This is not an opinion or prediction about the future, it’s what we Read More
Disciplined Investing
The lure of quick market gains and financial independence, many times from social media gurus driving luxury cars and traveling the world, tempts countless individuals to dive into financial markets. Often equipped with little more than mere intuition, tips from friends, or even investment advice from the same gurus that have lured them into the Read More
Macro and Trend Update – April 2025
The global economy and financial markets are about to enter a new world; different from what we have been used to over the past 50 years. It is becoming clear that the new US administration is dead serious about reversing what it sees as US weaknesses: persistent trade deficits, out-of-control government spending, and a sprawling Read More