View from Crystal Bay: Is the Global Trade Cycle Coming Turning a Corner?

Investors aren’t limited to only investing in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Every week we share the market trends we are following. We are interested in whether the trends in those markets are continuing or if they are experiencing a temporary or complete reversal. When we identify trends, we are only Read More

From the Trading Desk: Unfamiliar Territory

To recap my previous post, US Treasuries continue to be in the spotlight. Last week, the 10-yr Treasury Bond yield passed 1.7%, levels last seen more than a year ago. As a reminder, it started the year around 0.90% and has nearly doubled in less than three months.  10-year US Treasury Bond Yield (GT10 Govt) Read More

View from Crystal Bay: “Cash is Trash” What About Bonds?

Ray Dalio is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest macro hedge fund with $150 billion in assets under management. His investment letters are treasures that are passed around the investment community and read with avid interest. The latest one (https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/why-in-the-world-would-you-own-bonds-when) came out on Monday, March 15, and it’s a Read More

View from Crystal Bay: Unofficially, Inflation is Back

Official inflation numbers are becoming more and more laughable every day: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports CPI below 2%. We will address the causes of the mismeasurement in a separate piece, but in the meantime, you can rest assured, you’re not going crazy, and your eyes are not lying to you. Inflation is Read More

Has Tech Peaked?

As the market sell off picks up steam, the technology sector is bearing the brunt. Meanwhile, other sectors are exhibiting significant strength. Investors would do well to remember history and the fact that equity sectors alternate in having their day in the sun. Much as fashion changes year to year, so do the stocks that Read More