Uncertainty and fear of higher-than-expected inflation have been on investors’ minds for the past few weeks. Last week it was announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than 5% year over year, amounting to its biggest increase since 2008. Stocks in the U.S. did not respond in line with CPI figures however, considering Read More
View From Crystal Bay: Too Late or Just in Time
After a heady nine months in the commodities space, investors are starting to ask whether the boom is over. Have we missed it? Is there still time to jump on the bandwagon? Fear not, we haven’t even started yet. A quick look at the chart of the Bloomberg Commodity Index puts the recent past into Read More
Recommended Reading for Aspiring Traders
People who want to become quant investors or traders often ask for advice on how to start. I began my learning journey ten years ago and now I have some opinions on the matter. It is easy to put together a monster list of dozens of books but that kind of advice is counterproductive, more Read More
Beware the Noise
Behavioral economics has taken on greater importance by investors in recent years but has been an edge exploited by systematic investors for decades. The founders of behavioral economic theory, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, identified biases we all possess as part of the human condition. We are often asked for examples of such biases. One Read More
View from Crystal Bay: Lumber Prices Keep on Growing
Lumber prices have soared in the last 12 months to levels never seen before. Lumber traded between $200 and $400 for 25 years, from 1990 to 2015. There was a brief spike to $600 in 2018, but the price quickly returned to $400. The last 18 months have been wild. As the pandemic kept people Read More