Commodity markets are in the middle of a perfect storm. The pandemic tightened supply as operations were shut down and businesses drew down inventories in anticipation of a slowdown that never materialized. Wild monetary response coupled with fast demand recovery, creating shortages across the board. Prices shot up for almost all commodities. During the last Read More
From the Trading Desk: Commodity Backwardation
Many countries around the globe continue to face another deadly wave of Covid-19. India, Thailand, Brazil, and others are still struggling as more restrictions are being placed on the population to fight the pandemic. Some European countries are starting to lift restrictions as vaccination numbers are increasing and new cases are beginning to fall. In Read More
View from Crystal Bay: A New Version of Tax, Inflation
A few countries in the world, mostly in continental Europe and Latin America, are collecting wealth taxes from their residents. A wealth tax is an annual charge, ranging from 0.5% to 3%, on net worth (assets minus liabilities). Wealth taxes are controversial, often leading to an exodus of the most talented and wealthiest residents (such Read More
Leverage the Process
One day history will be written surrounding the pandemic and the financial markets, for now, the story is still unfolding. A recent Wall Street Journal article reminded me that not all is rosy despite the all-time highs in the markets today. Many of those affected by the pandemic have given up getting rich in the markets and Read More
View from Crystal Bay: Reflections of a Systematic Trader
Financial markets operate on the edge of chaos. If prices moved in easily predictable patterns, traders would make money by jumping in front of them. But that would disrupt the pattern, making it useless for prediction. On the other hand, if financial markets were pure noise, there would be no point in investing. Asset prices Read More