Lumber prices have soared in the last 12 months to levels never seen before. Lumber traded between $200 and $400 for 25 years, from 1990 to 2015. There was a brief spike to $600 in 2018, but the price quickly returned to $400. The last 18 months have been wild. As the pandemic kept people Read More
View from Crystal Bay: Case-Shiller 15 Years Later
Not all futures contracts succeed in gaining trader adoption. Exchanges try to list many contracts. They then quietly delist those that languish in obscurity. Successful launches are rare. The creation of whole new categories of contracts is even rarer and happens about once per decade. The 1970s saw adoption of currency and interest rate futures Read More
From the Trading Desk: Global Market Recap
In the U.S., wearing a face mask will not be required for fully vaccinated citizens, Germany’s Covid-19 spread continues to fall, Turkey is looking to start easing restrictions on its population, and Italy’s vaccination efforts show high effectivity in controlling the pandemic. Meanwhile, Hong Kong will impose travel restrictions from Taiwan and Singapore. Taiwan posted Read More
View from Crystal Bay: Moving Markets Forward with Micro Contracts
The futures industry historically served large users: big farmers, grain traders, food processing companies, energy companies, etc. They were mostly commodity producers or buyers hedging their exposure; investors and speculators played a small role in the market. That started changing in the early 1970s with the launch of the International Monetary Market, a subsidiary of Read More
View from Crystal Bay: Nostalgia is for Losers
The coronavirus pandemic will leave its imprint on the world’s economy for a long time. One of its casualties is likely to be the remaining open outcry futures trading pits. Who can forget the dramatic hue and cry of trading pits? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obAoPP1bdIM) The loud shouting and frenetic hand signaling made for great entertainment. Alas, computers Read More