Recommended Reading for Aspiring Traders

People who want to become quant investors or traders often ask for advice on how to start. I began my learning journey ten years ago and now I have some opinions on the matter. It is easy to put together a monster list of dozens of books but that kind of advice is counterproductive, more Read More

Beware the Noise

Behavioral economics has taken on greater importance by investors in recent years but has been an edge exploited by systematic investors for decades. The founders of behavioral economic theory, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, identified biases we all possess as part of the human condition. We are often asked for examples of such biases. One Read More

View from Crystal Bay: Lumber Prices Keep on Growing

Lumber prices have soared in the last 12 months to levels never seen before. Lumber traded between $200 and $400 for 25 years, from 1990 to 2015. There was a brief spike to $600 in 2018, but the price quickly returned to $400. The last 18 months have been wild. As the pandemic kept people Read More

View from Crystal Bay: Case-Shiller 15 Years Later

Not all futures contracts succeed in gaining trader adoption. Exchanges try to list many contracts. They then quietly delist those that languish in obscurity. Successful launches are rare. The creation of whole new categories of contracts is even rarer and happens about once per decade. The 1970s saw adoption of currency and interest rate futures Read More

From the Trading Desk: Global Market Recap

In the U.S., wearing a face mask will not be required for fully vaccinated citizens, Germany’s Covid-19 spread continues to fall, Turkey is looking to start easing restrictions on its population, and Italy’s vaccination efforts show high effectivity in controlling the pandemic. Meanwhile, Hong Kong will impose travel restrictions from Taiwan and Singapore. Taiwan posted Read More