Beware the Noise

Behavioral economics has taken on greater importance by investors in recent years but has been an edge exploited by systematic investors for decades. The founders of behavioral economic theory, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, identified biases we all possess as part of the human condition. We are often asked for examples of such biases. One Read More

Leverage the Process

One day history will be written surrounding the pandemic and the financial markets, for now, the story is still unfolding. A recent Wall Street Journal article reminded me that not all is rosy despite the all-time highs in the markets today. Many of those affected by the pandemic have given up getting rich in the markets and Read More

View from Crystal Bay: “Cash is Trash” What About Bonds?

Ray Dalio is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest macro hedge fund with $150 billion in assets under management. His investment letters are treasures that are passed around the investment community and read with avid interest. The latest one (https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/why-in-the-world-would-you-own-bonds-when) came out on Monday, March 15, and it’s a Read More

Has Tech Peaked?

As the market sell off picks up steam, the technology sector is bearing the brunt. Meanwhile, other sectors are exhibiting significant strength. Investors would do well to remember history and the fact that equity sectors alternate in having their day in the sun. Much as fashion changes year to year, so do the stocks that Read More

View from Crystal Bay: I Thought You Said It’s Okay?

The covid-19 pandemic hit the US with full force one year ago. Our country was unprepared. Those who were in charge of US response failed dramatically in their jobs, and the same is true throughout most of the Western world. There is a wonderful account on Twitter called “Covid One Year Ago” (@YearCovid). It retweets Read More