Category: Research

The last 15 years saw the third longest bull market in US history. We have gone 5,091 days (almost 14 years) since the last 30% correction. The two bull markets that lasted longer ended in May 1970 (ushering in 12 years of pain) and September 2001 (followed by a lost decade for stocks). The longer Read More

Looking from a distance, the US stock market looks placid. The S&P 500 index reached all time highs and volatility is low. After the sell-offs in 2020 (due to Covid) and 2022 (due to a rise in interest rates), equities are behaving well. The recent quiet is obvious from a chart of daily returns on Read More

Human behavior follows seasonal patterns, as anyone who’s been to the gym in January can confirm. On Dec. 31st, the gym is empty. But come the New Year, it fills with sweaty bodies contorted in unfamiliar poses. A true gym rat is not disturbed by this because he knows the crowding is temporary. By February, everything Read More

Mankind’s quest to get inebriated drove much of technological progress. Discoveries at Göbekli Tepe showed that hunter-gatherers made beer from barley 11,000 years ago, before they discovered agriculture and bread-making. Similarly, rice was used to make beer in Qiaotou in southern China 9,000 years ago. Neither rice nor barley grow in Central America, so locals had to find something Read More