The correct allocation is not Zero Summary Most US individual investors hold less than 5% of their portfolio in gold. Institutional allocations are at zero. We show that optimal allocation to gold is somewhere between 15-25% of a total portfolio, and review the characteristics of gold as an asset class that make it unique and Read More
Posts by Jakub Rehor - Portfolio Manager
Alternatives That Are Not Alternatives
The fifteen year bull market that started in 2009 drove investor allocations to US equities to all time highs. We are now at levels exceeding the late 1990s dotcom bubble or the 1960s go-go market. Investor allocation to stocks as a fraction of all assets since the early 1950’s Stock market valuations are stretched: current Read More
Macro and Trend Update – April 2025
The global economy and financial markets are about to enter a new world; different from what we have been used to over the past 50 years. It is becoming clear that the new US administration is dead serious about reversing what it sees as US weaknesses: persistent trade deficits, out-of-control government spending, and a sprawling Read More
Asset Clusters
Stock & bond investors miss out on 70% of the diversification available. One of the attractions of trading futures is that the universe of instruments is large and wide. Do you want to trade gold? There is an instrument for that. Oil? Sure. S&P 500? Korean government bonds? The Swiss franc? Oats? Yes, yes, yes, Read More
A US Recession is Imminent
Recessions are rare events. Since 1990, the US economy spent about 10% of the time in a recession and 90% of the time in a recovery or an expansion. Most of the time, investors don’t have to worry about it. About once every 10 years, however, we better watch out. Recessions trigger bad bear markets, Read More