As the new case counts decline and vaccination numbers march forward in the United States, we can see the end of the coronavirus pandemic on the horizon, at least domestically. A few other countries are also doing well, led by Israel, Seychelles, United Arab Emirates, Bhutan, Chile, the United Kingdom, Serbia, and Hungary. (As an aside, who had these countries on their bingo card as the vaccination rollout winners?) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html
Surprisingly, the EU has fumbled the vaccine rollout badly, wasting time on nickel-and-dime negotiations over prices and then panicking when a few reports came out citing blood clotting among vaccine recipients (but not at a rate any different from the general population). Canada is also behind the curve, lagging Turkey and Morocco.
Asian countries that succeeded in preventing covid from spreading in the first place are taking it slow in vaccinations, but they are not under the same pressure as the rest of the world.
Countries that did not handle covid well and now are behind in vaccinating their population are paying a steep price. Europe went into a hard lockdown in the weeks leading up to Easter. European economies are continuing to take a heavy hit.
The biggest unknown at this point comes from emerging market countries. India suffered only minor effects during the first wave in 2020, but its cases and deaths are now growing fast. Brazil keeps breaking its own grim records. Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Argentina are showing accelerating case counts as well.
Covid disrupted the supply of a number of commodities that are concentrated in one or two countries, such as palm oil and copper. The main commodity consuming countries (China and the US) are on track to a vigorous recovery. Any further supply problems would quickly translate into higher prices and shortages. Not only the world’s health, but also the rate of inflation depends on fast and vigorous global vaccination program.
Last week’s continuing trends:
- Soybeans
- Communication services index
- Canadian Government Bonds
- Taiwanese Equities
- Palm Oil
Last week’s reversing trends:
- Indian Rupee
- Zinc
- Silver
- London Cocoa
- Aluminum